A few years ago I read the book the The Black Swan - By Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I’ve been meaning to read it again, I found it quite interesting.

Ludic Fallacy - the misuse of games to model real-life situations

a rebuttal of the predictive mathematical models used to predict the future – as well as an attack on the idea of applying naïve and simplified statistical models in complex domains.

  • It is impossible to be in possession of the entirety of available information.

  • Small unknown variations in the data could have a huge impact. Taleb differentiates his idea from that of mathematical notions in chaos theory (e.g., the butterfly effect).

  • Theories or models based on empirical data are claimed to be flawed as they may not be able to predict events which are previously unobserved, but have tremendous impact (e.g., the 9/11 terrorist attacks or the invention of the automobile), also known as black swan theory.